Thinking · Probabilistic thinking
15 min · pencil, a coin
★☆☆
Coin-flip forecaster
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A fair coin lands on heads about half the time. That is about 50/50. Can you beat chance?
- Before each flip, write H (heads) or T (tails) in “Predict”.
- Flip and write the result. Tick it if you were right.
- Count your ticks. Chance gets about 10 out of 20. Were your guesses better than chance?
| # | Predict | Result |
|---|
| 11 | | |
| 12 | | |
| 13 | | |
| 14 | | |
| 15 | | |
| # | Predict | Result |
|---|
| 16 | | |
| 17 | | |
| 18 | | |
| 19 | | |
| 20 | | |
My ticks out of 20:
Better than chance?
Grown-up corner
Why it matters: Kids learn that some things are really random, and that a lucky streak is not a superpower.
- Did you feel “due” for heads after some tails?
- If 20 people did this, would someone get 15 right just by luck?
Extend it: Try it with a die (1 to 6): what score does chance give you out of 20?
My brain felt: ☐ easy ☐ just right ☐ stretchy
One thing I learned: ________________________
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